The two protocols signed by Turkey and Armenia on October 10th are now awaiting action by the Turkish parliament’s foreign affairs committee.  Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev has frequently spoken against any rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia as long as the latter continues to occupy Azerbaijani territory.  Baku’s strategy to elicit popular concern in Turkey proved effective, since the Turkish government has often tried to defend its foreign policy decisions in terms of public opinion.  The AKP government is receptive to public opinion and has by now reiterate...

Since late 1980s the world has experienced a number of processes the significance of which is sometimes described as geopolitical earthquakes.  These worldwide events in turn have triggered many regional changes, including Russia’s rapprochement with Turkey, that have so far garnered fewer headlines but are increasingly the subject of discussion in diplomatic and academic circles. Participants in these discussions generally fall into two camps.  The first, which might be called “the sceptics,” do not deny that there has been a strengthening of relations between Russia and...

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s statement that Baku would use force to recover the occupied territories if an agreement on their return is not reached soon, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan’s suggestion that Yerevan would recognize Karabakh as an independent state if any force were used against that enclave, repeated media suggestions that one or another parties in the dispute is going to turn away from Russia or from the West depending on what occurs next – all these and many other events over the last month have sparked speculation that the South Caucasus is on the verge of...