Does GUAM have a future? A personal view

As many commentators and analysts have pointed out, GUAM was the brainchild of those countries – Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Moldova – which joined the Commonwealth of Independent States but which were interested in pursuing a more Western orientation than the other eight members.  Its birth mother, if you will, was the Conventional Forces in Europe talks, where the four first made a joint declaration about their orientation. At the same time, we should recognize that NATO and especially the United States played a role as foster mothers or babysitters as the organization took its first steps.  But there is one important comment that should be made here: GUAM did not emerge as an internal dissenter within the CIS as some in Moscow continue to suggest.  The member states had a broader agenda than that ...