Vol. 1, No. 14-15 (September 1, 2008)

Russia’s invasion of Georgia: What it was and what it meant

August this year was a hot month and not just in terms of the weather.  Within a single week, two parallel wars began and ended.  One was an intra-state war between Georgia and South Ossetia which Tbilisi won quickly and decisively.  The other was an international war between Russia and Georgia, which Tbilisi lost equally decisively.  This second war was the second time (after the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict) that two former Soviet republics have fought. But if this was a military defeat in which Georgia lost many of its people and much of its key infrastructure, it w...
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Azerbaijan after Georgia: Ten shattered assumptions of Azerbaijani foreign policy

No country, with the possible exception of the two immediate antagonists, has seen its foreign policy environment transformed by the recent war in Georgia more than Azerbaijan.  That conflict and the way in which both individual countries and the international community have responded have cast doubt on almost all the assumptions on which Azerbaijan's foreign policy have been based over the last decade.  And consequently both the government of Azerbaijan and the Azerbaijani people are confronted with the difficult and traumatic task of redefining not only the mental maps they h...
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Russia’s war with Georgia: Implications for Azerbaijan

The Russo-Georgian war of August 2008 will have significant repercussions for the entire Caucasus.  Moscow’s objectives are already clear.  It will annex South Ossetia and Abkhazia, thus violating the 1975 Helsinki treaty and ripping apart the post-Cold War settlement based on the indivisibility of European security.  It will deprive Georgia of its economic and self-defense capacity and destroy Georgia’s civilian infrastructure and economy.  Meanwhile its call to indict Georgian President Saakashvili for war crimes and refusal to negotiate with him or adhere to th...
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Did Moscow prevent a US attack on Iran by its moves in Georgia?

While it is still too early to speak in detail about the results of the behind the scenes talks between Moscow and Washington about the resolution of the Georgian-Russian conflict, it is clear that these discussions, like the calculations of all those involved in this conflict, reflected not just the immediate situation in Georgia and its two breakaway republics, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.  Some of these larger or more distant goals have been mentioned by various officials and analysts, but some of the most interesting, even if they remain in the realm of speculation, say a great d...
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Turkey’s push for Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform

In the course of the Georgian crisis, Turkey has engaged in extensive shuttle diplomacy in the aftermath of the conflict in Georgia, Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan visiting Tbilisi, Moscow and Baku to push Ankara’s plan for a Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform.  That plan, which aims to bring together Turkey, Russia and all three South Caucasus countries, has received support across the region, and Turkish diplomats are now arranging working level meetings with their counterparts. Since Erdogan announced this proposal, Ankara has tried to work in close cooperation with Rus...
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